The numbers behind the table
Expected goals and expected points for every finished match we hold, across six football competitions and the NFL. The league table says what happened. This says whether it should have.
La Liga — ranked on the model
Expected goal difference per match: the chances a side created minus the chances it conceded, which is a steadier description of a team than a scoreline that turned on one deflection. Based on the 20 clubs the model has seen at least 3 matches of.
Running ahead of the model, and behind it
Actual points minus expected points, over the matches the model has seen. Above the line a side has taken more from its chances than the model says it should; below it, less. Neither is a verdict - it is the size of the gap a reader should be asking about.
Every division we analyse
Manchester City lead
FC Bayern München lead
Paris Saint Germain lead
Inter lead
Legia Warszawa lead
FC Barcelona leadThe SAM metric board
Our own rating, across every position. The full board and the position breakdowns are on the NFL desk.
Latest from the desk
Lazio head into Sunday's Serie A matchweek 7 clash with Juventus having won five of their last six, while the hosts are navigating a serious injury crisis with four key players unavailable. Something has to give.
Green Bay's Jordan Love has torched Dallas for 609 yards, 6 TDs and zero INTs in two career meetings. With the Cowboys secondary shredded by injuries and their defense ranked dead last in turnovers, Sunday Night Football at Lambeau Field looks like a mismatch on paper.
Patrick Mahomes and the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs host Jim Harbaugh's battered, winless Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. With Kenneth Walker III shredding defenses and Herbert drowning in turnovers, this one could get ugly fast.
The Buffalo Bills (4-1, averaging 32.8 points per game) visit a Las Vegas Raiders team (3-2) reeling from a 45-17 blowout loss to the Patriots. Josh Allen's dual-threat brilliance meets a Raiders defense tied for the most takeaways in the NFL, in a Week 6 clash that could define both teams' early-season trajectories.
The Indianapolis Colts (2-3) host the winless Tennessee Titans (0-5) in Week 6, with Daniel Jones needing a healthy Josh Downs to move the ball while Tennessee's battered injury report threatens to make this an early exit from relevance for Robert Saleh's squad.
The 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers visit a 1-4 Tampa Bay squad missing Baker Mayfield to a thumb injury, leaving undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels to face Aaron Rodgers, T.J. Watt, and one of the league's most physical defensive fronts. Vegas has Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road favorites with a 39.5 total.